This report, aim to provide an external assessment of implementation of AEC Blueprint 2025. The scope of the AEC Blueprint is very broad, and our resources are modest in comparison – as a result this report is intended to serve as a foundation which we will build on in future reports.
This report can be conclude in this 5 conclusion:
- Intra-ASEAN trade and investment has continued to grow in absolute terms, but the intensity of regional trade and investment remains broadly stable as a share of total trade and investment. Intra-ASEAN trade in goods remains between 22-24% through the years, varying largely as a result of the changes in extra-regional trade volumes. Both intra-ASEAN trade in services and tourism continues to stagnate amidst increasing flows with the world.
- Two years since the Consolidated Strategic Action Plan to implement the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint was agreed, more than half of the total 647 actions lines have been fully or partially implemented. However, of these, we judge that only 17.7% have been fully implemented.
- Since 2003, the majority of ASEAN Member States have become significantly more integrated into Global Value Chains (GVCs) suggesting the ASEAN Economic Community has been successful in developing ASEAN as a single production base.
- Due to the relatively slower growth of intra-ASEAN trade and investment, it is unlikely that ASEAN will meet its target of doubling the share of intra-regional trade by 2025. This is largely driven by structural factors and the underlying dynamics of ASEAN economies, including the lack of trade complementarity and divergent development paths.
- The perception of the ASEAN Economic Community remains quite negative, despite some evidence of success. This may reflect the failure to achieve progress in the most important areas, the relative weakness of the actions or a lack of ambition in the overall level of integration.
